The final SES numbers (pdf) on the eve of election are quite interesting. Instead of just showing their usual 3 day rolling average, they’ve also shown the individual numbers for each day.
It shows the Conservative support at 38.3% according to the results from Friday, Jan. 20, but only at 33.2% today. Are people rethinking their support for Harper now that they’re faced with actually voting for him or is this just a common type of occurance we never got to see because SES has only shown the 3 day average until now?
I certainly hope the former reason is responsible for this and that it’s not just an anomaly since the last day of polling also shows the NDP sitting at 22.2%.
Either way, tomorrow is going to be an interesting election day.
It looks like the undecideds have been moving to the NDP and the Liberals have eaten away at some of the Conservatives’ support - unless of course it’s an outlier.
Assuming Harper is going to win a minority, however, I foresee a Great Canadian Sell-out in the works I’m afraid.
I don’t mean to be a pessimist, but I think that since everyone is voting with the assumption that it will be a minority (for the conservatives). It will probably end up as a conservative majority.
Since the change in numbers is within the margin of error, I’d say it’s probably anomalous.
I think people are prepared to live with a Conservative minority, but I’d be curious to see if Jack can get the NDP numbers up. He’d make a much better Opposition leader, don’tcha think?
I don’t mean to be a pessimist, but I think that since everyone is voting with the assumption that it will be a minority (for the conservatives). It will probably end up as a conservative majority.
Well, who knows, but you have to think about what happens when people vote. If non-Conservative voters (the majority of the electorate) go to the polls thinking it’ll be a Conservative minority, they’re still not going to be voting Conservative.
Oh, and I see the some passive-aggressive trolling already. It might be interesting to think how the ever-tactical Reform-a-tories are strategising for a post-victory marshalling of gloat and triumphalism. Studying how the Republicans (from whom they copy everything) would indicate that they’re planning to puff up and wildly exaggerate a Conservative win as:
1. Harper receiving an overwhelming mandate from the Canadian people
2. That Canadians have voted for change, not just in government, but for change in what the country fundamentally stands for
3. The the East has finally “allowed” the West to take its rightful place in Confederation
…and a probably many other really maudlin and boring things Harper’s team of marketing consultants and motivational speakers are busy dreaming up as we speak.
“Well, who knows, but you have to think about what happens when people vote. If non-Conservative voters (the majority of the electorate) go to the polls thinking it’ll be a Conservative minority, they’re still not going to be voting Conservative.”
I think there is a significant proportion of the public that alternates between holding their noses and voting Liberal and holding their noses and voting Tory. Of those, many are assuming that a Conservative minority is a fait accompli, not realising that it depends on how people like themselves vote. These are people whose politics I think I understand (though they’re not my kind of politics, there is a method to their madness). For instance, they may be economic conservatives who happen to be gay or libertarians who are women. They are unsure whether they hate Martin or Harper more, so they hesitate. There are also some NDPers, and I know this is hard to believe, I hardly believe it myself, who are alternating between the Tories and the NDP if you can imagine. Since they assume only a minority is possible, they may also vote Tory. Ack.
Oh, and added to this are the Liberals or NDP who alternate between voting NDP and Liberal (of course). So there’s lot’s of room for upsets. In any case, you don’t have to like the Tories to vote for them it seems. Many vote out of spite.
Actually, I have met a few people who could alternate between Conservative and NDP, but these people were part of the vanishingly small number of Reform supporters who actually believed Reform meant reform. It think it’s this naivety that led to the hijacking of both the Reform/Alliance and the Conservatives by the the dishonest neo-cons.
I’ve never met anyone who’s held his or her nose and voted Conservative, though. All the Conservatives I know have been Conservative since conception…or parthenogenesis…or budding…or however it is Conservatives reproduce. When they vote Conservative, they really want to.
Only people like me hold their noses and vote Liberal (not always, though). But then, I have very low expectations of the political process to begin with.
There are also a tonne of people who arent’ sure what the various parties stand for or what a given candidate is about. I met one guy once who looked over at the television screen and did not recognise the premier of the province on the TV. It’s impossible to tell how a person like that will vote. Anyway, you see what I mean. So merely having a greater number of people who support left wing values, does not necessarily guarantee a left wing outcome, if it did of course, we would never have a Tory government. However, we do manage a lot of left wing governments especially since there is more than one left wing party and I think you are right that the population is pretty left wing.
On the issue of conservatives voting Liberal there sure are a lot of zealots out there, it is true, but in Canada there are still a few old red Tories left and many of these are unsure where their loyalties lie. There are also, as I mentioned, the libertarians who are pro-choice for instance and the Gay Tories who don’t know who to vote for.
Well, I’m not ideological. I’d like to see a democratic process and active citizenship that isn’t so intent on seeing itself as leftwing or rightwing or libertarian or anarchist or, or, or….and starts actively reflecting what I think most people here want…progression.
I find these labels only have meaning or any kind of reality when it’s understood that they reflect personal belief systems only, in much the same way as faith (or religion) reflect something very personal, that one else can understand completely (because you can’t get into other people’s heads). They don’t translate very well into insightful descriptions of society as a whole, especially one as diverse as ours.
What a pathetic post.
I want every true red progressive to give this a read…It will be more relaxing than reading about polls in about 8 hours…
Dont you have bridge to crawl back under?
Or a rock? I don’t think this guy can afford space under a bridge.
Anyway, I’m tired of it. Especially when I can’t go over to RTIHB’s anymore and call him a gay and insane.
The other thing to remember, FWIW, is that if you look at the regional breakdowns, they are almost identical from previous SES polls, except for Atlantic Canada, which showed a big jump to the Libs … but it also has a 10 per cent (!!!) MOE for that region.
Time will, as they say, tell ….
B.C. has lots of voters that can vote Con or NDP. Reform’s original success here was built with many former NDP voters. That the same Reformers have trying to paint themselves as PCs in this election is why I think you’ll see B.C. buck the national trend and send more Dippers and less Cons to parliament than we did in 2004.