Hot on the heels of news that Harper is set to call four by-elections to fill vacant seats in the House of Commons is silly commentary by silly pundits for silly people.

There are no easy wins for the Tories among the seats up for grabs. Conventional political wisdom is that by-elections tend to be hard for governing parties to win because they often turn into protest votes.

The riding of Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley in Nova Scotia has sent a Conservative to Parliament on all but one occasion–in `93 a Liberal managed to win when the Reform Party and PC Party split the vote–since the dawn of time. Bill Casey, running as an independent, won the riding with a staggering 69% of the vote in 2008. In 2006 he won it with a measly 52% of the vote running as a Conservative. To say that there are no easy wins for the Tories simply takes rationality out behind the woodshed and puts a bullet between its eyes.

Here’s another silly bit of commentary by silly pundits for silly people.

But for Michael Ignatieff, they’re the next true tests of his leadership. Because these by-elections are the first chance he’s had at running a campaign since he became Liberal leader…
And in order for him to pass these tests, he’s got to win one.

I’ve already pointed out that the riding in Nova Scotia is a lock for the Conservatives but what about the others. There are two up for grabs in Quebec and one in British Columbia.

Montmagny-L’Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup: This riding, created in 2003, was won by the Bloc in 2008 with 46% of the vote. The Liberals came in third with 15%.

Hochelaga-Maisonneuve: This riding, created in 2003, was won by the Bloc in 2008 with 50% of the vote compared to 20% for the second place Liberals.

New Westminster-Coquitlam: This riding was won by the NDP in 2008 with 42% of the vote. The Liberals finished third with 11%.

The only test Ignatieff and the rest of us face is the test of our patience as silly pundits make silly comments about these by-elections.