Here’s an excellent article on energy royalties in Alberta. Of course I liked this part the most.
Without energy, Alberta’s gross domestic product would be about half the size, according to economists Robert Mansell and Ron Schlenker of the University of Calgary, who added that without royalties, a provincial sales tax of 16 per cent would be needed to make up the revenue. And they said the calculations were probably understated, alluding to the fact that without energy, there’d be hardly any economy at all in Alberta, with no need for all the engineers, lawyers and accountants, never mind all the restaurants and Canadian Tires.
Don’t be so anti-Albertan, Robert. Alberta would do well without oil. Look at all the cultural products Alberta has favoured the rest of Canada with. The music, the art, the movies, the fashion, the food….the poetry….that makes us weep…
Without the car industry, Ontario’s gross domestic product would be about half the size, according to economists Iam Fucked and Youare Screwed of the University of Toronto, who added that without huge amount of taxes the car industry pays, a provincial sales tax of 16 per cent would be needed to make up the revenue. And they said the calculations were probably understated, alluding to the fact that without the car industry, there’d be hardly any economy at all in Ontario, with no need for all the engineers, lawyers, accountants and socialist, never mind all the restaurants, Canadian Tires and the whinny Alberta is bad industry.
Deno,
The auto industry is a value-added manufacturing industry. They take refined resources and make things out of them. The oil industry is a resource extraction industry. Once the oil is gone, the oil industry will be gone.
Can you see the difference? I can see the difference.
If Alberta was changing the oil they’re furiously ripping out of the ground into plastics, high end lubrication products, etc., your argument might have made sense. It makes little sense the way you’ve framed it.
But then, few of your arguments make sense when examined in the light of day, do they? (Though I have to admit to smiling at your choice of names for your two made-up economists with their made-up statistics – smiling the way anyone would at the wayward antics of a petulant child they aren’t responsible for.)
Authordecco
You should really educate yourself buddy. While the auto industry is indeed a value added manufacturing industry, Ontario’s problem is they only sell virtually to one customer, the US. In the last 4 years Ontario’s car industry and the rest of their manufacturers watch their cost rise significantly because of this bull market in resources we are in today and the loonie gain 50% on the US dollar.
This double whammy to Ontario’s manufacturing industry in the last 4 years is forcing Ontario to “have not “ status within Canada. Since the US economy is on the brink of disaster because of the debt load in the US of it’s citizens, business and governments Ontario’s manufactures are on a one way street to Armageddon. The stupidity of Ontario to rely solely on the US as it’s only customer is now going to bit them in the ass permanently. What good is a value added industry that doesn’t have any customers?
Also China is about to mass produce their own line of cars that will certainly be able to undercut Canadian made cars by over paid, under worked unionised auto workers. Over the last few year 10,000’s of auto manufacturing and related industry jobs have already been loss with 10,000’s more to come over the next decade. My guess is that Ontario will become a presently “have not province with in 3 years and they will watch while the western provinces of BC, Alberta and Sask eclipse Ontario as Canada’s largest economy.
Now to your other point about Alberta’s oil running out. Using today’s technology there is about 175 billion barrels of recoverable oil in the Alberta oilsands. Today Alberta oilsands produces a little more then 1 million barrels a day which would be 365 million barrels a years so by today’s production rates Alberta oilsands will be producing oil for the next 500 years.When in about a decades time Alberta will be producing about 3 million barrels a day which is about 1 billion barrels a year, Alberta oilsands will be producing oil for at lease another 175 years. Using today’s technology only about 20% of the oil in Alberta’s oilsands is recoverable so this is where we get the number of 175 billion barrels of recoverable reserves. Given that humans have a knack for creating better and better technology as time goes by it is a good bet that Alberta’s recoverable reserves will double or triple over the next century so basically Alberta will be producing oil for the world long after the Ontario car industry is dust and is only a memory of Ontario’s glorious past
One last thing Authordecco, since oilsand production is energy intensive the cost of producing oil at the tarsands has risen allot over the last 4 years and the rise in the Canadian dollar also means that Alberta’s tarsands companies are receiving less Canadian dollars for every barrel of oil produced. The same problems that the Ontario car industry has faced over the last 4 years has also affected the tarsands, the big difference is while the Ontario Car industry gets sicker and sicker the Alberta tarsands oil industry has become more profitable because the price of oil has tripled and has more then compensated that oil industry rise in production cost and the higher loonie. Since the odds are very high that the world is now in peak oil production, there is a very good chance that oil prices will rise much higher over the next decade. This will only add more nails to Ontario’s manufacturing coffin while Alberta’s oil industry thrives.
Can you see the difference? I can see the difference.
Since few of your arguments make sense when examined in the light of day I’ll forgive your inability to make a rational argument about the future of Alberta and Ontario.
As for the economist names, I used those words so tri-fool could understand at lease half a sentence. Since his vocabulary is restricted to 5 swear words I didn’t want him to feel left out.
Deno
Authordecco
Read em and weep buddy.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/01/20/60minutes/main1225184.shtml
Since Saskatchewan has probably a larger oilsand deposit then Alberta does, the minute the people of Saskatchewan get rid if the NDP and their idiotic energy policies they will join Alberta and BC as Canada’s news economic powerhouse.
The economic rise of western Canada is unstoppable
Here is few words from Doug Casey about Saskatchewan’s oilsands deposites and the problem of the NDP.
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/casey/2006/0411.html
“With attention focused on Alberta’s oil sands, few analysts have noted that development abruptly ends at the province’s eastern border with Saskatchewan. Do the rocks suddenly disappear? Unlikely.
In fact, looking deeper we found historical evidence that Saskatchewan hosts rich oil sands. Perhaps even richer than Alberta’s. The problem is politics. The Saskatchewan government has been all but closed to development, meaning that almost no companies have pursued projects here.
I say almost none because it turns out there is one little-known oil sands developer working in Saskatchewan. A company it just so happens holds a land package larger than all Alberta’s oil sands projects combined. With management that has already built one oil sands company into a billion-dollar player.
But despite these glaring positives, the company has gotten little love from the market. So much so that when we came upon it, it was trading at a $200 million market cap—tiny by oil sands standards. In December 2005, we jumped on the huge potential here and within three months saw gains as high as 315%—the kind of returns you get by going where others haven’t.
The best thing is that despite this run, the stock is still less than half the market cap of the smallest Alberta oil sands company—with potential for reserves that dwarf those of most Alberta players. I can’t mention the name here—it would be unfair to Casey Energy Speculator subscribers—but rest assured this is a story that will be receiving a great deal of mention in the pages of our letter.
Bottom line: if you’re considering investing in the oil sands—and I believe there are many reasons you should—or in any other “hot” sector for that matter, look for ways to “extend the trend”. Uncover opportunities that are beyond most investors’ radar at the moment, but which have the ability to benefit from the rising tide once they do break. Doing so, you’ll maximize your returns… and garner a great deal of pleasure when the talking heads on CNBC start touting the company you bought months ago as the next big thing. ”
© 2006 Doug Casey
Editorial Archive
Deknob, can you keep your illiterate, fascist rants to a minimum? Thank you.
Since I can’t post this on your last posting on Afghanistan here is a list of accomplishments that Canada and NATO have done for the Afghan people. To bad our left wing bias media chooses to not inform Canadians about all the good Canadian soldiers are doing in Afghanistan.
Also the latest poll shows that a majority of Canadians support the afghan mission and proves that the left in Canada is again out of step with ordinary Canadians.
51% for the mission
45% against
http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/story.html?id=57003c80-cb12-4bb3-8cf3-63ba897253c9&k=87493
Here is a list of NATO’s accomplistments in Afganistan
At the national level the NATO led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) development work has ensured that:
1. Millions of girls are back in school with 400,000 new female students starting school for the first time this year;
2. Over 100,000 women benefited from micro finance loans to set up their own business;
3. Over a quarter of parliamentarians are women;
4. Over 7 million girls and boys are in school or higher education;
5. 83% of the population now has access to medical facilities, compared to 9 percent in 2004;
6. 76% of children under the age of five have been immunized against childhood diseases;
7. More than 4000 medical facilities opened since 2004;
8. Over 600 midwives were trained and deployed in every province of Afghanistan;
9. GDP growth estimates of between12-14% for the current year;
10. Government revenues increased by around 25% from 2005/06 to 2006/07;
11. Income per capita of $355, compared to $180 three years ago;
12. Afghanistan is one of the fastest growing economies in South-East Asia;
13. Over 4000 km of roads have been completed;
14. Work has begun on 20,000 new homes for Afghans returning to Kabul;
15. Over 1 billion square metres (roughly 32 km X 32 km) of mine contaminated land cleared;
16. 10 universities are operating around the country, against one (barely functioning) under the Taliban; and
17. 17,000 communities benefited from development programmes such as wells, schools, hospitals and roads through the Government’s National Solidarity Program (NSP).
Most of those projects have some, often substantial, Canadian components: money, management and personnel. Some, like (13) new roads and (17) new wells and schools, are the work-a-day projects of the Canadian soldiers in the Kandahar Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) who are managing or doing the building and rebuilding using funds provided by the Canadian International Development Agency.
Further, the creation of the sorts of institutions which will make it possible for Afghans, themselves, to address their own political problems in their own ways – but free of dangerous fundamentalist propaganda – is also underway in the form of communications and information technology development which facilitates the free exchange of ideas and information:
18. 10% of Afghans now own a mobile phone, compared to 2 lines per 1000 people in 2001;
19. 150 cities across Afghanistan now have access to mobile phone networks and internet provider services; and
20. 7 national TV stations (6 private); numerous radio networks, plus a diverse and increasingly robust and professional print media are up and running.
That’s 20 out of a much longer list of ISAF projects.