A sampling of some recent polls.
Two federal polls have the opposition Liberals at new lows of 23%/24% (down 3%/2% since the last election) versus the Conservatives at 38%/37%.
Two British Columbia polls have the ruling Liberals now behind with 35%/33% (down 11%/13% since the last election) versus the New Democrats at 43%/47%.
A New Brunswick poll has the ruling Liberals now behind with 33% (down 14% since the last election) versus the Progressive Conservatives at 45%.
An Ontario poll has the ruling Liberals barely hanging on with 37% (down 5% since the last election) versus the Progressive Conservatives at 35%.
A Quebec poll has the ruling Liberals now behind with 39% (down 3% since the last election) versus the Parti Quebecois at 40%.
A Saskatchewan poll has the fourth place Liberals not even in the picture at 3.9% (down 5% since the last election) versus the Saskatchewan Party at 61.7%.

Update: Here’s a graph showing the change in support levels–from the last election to the most recent poll–for the 4 federal parties and their provincial equivalent. It’s a fairly decent illustration of the current momentum for each brand.

As you can see, the Liberals are losing support almost everywhere. The Conservatives are a mixed bag, but overall they’re losing support in more areas. The New Democrats are also a mixed bag, but overall they’re gaining support in more areas. The Greens are picking up support all over the country.

The latest Angus Reid poll has the Liberals at 23%.

CP: 38%
LP: 23%
NDP: 17%
BQ: 11%
GP: 10%

The media is killing the Liberal Party and they’re doing nothing about it.

Update: Ipsos Reid also has a new poll out today that puts the Conservatives at 37%, the Liberals at 24% and the New Democrats at 19%.

There’s a good reason why the Liberal Party is falling further and further behind the Conservatives in the polls. It’s because of nonsense like this.

Random breathalyzers an unacceptable infringement of the Charter (UPDATED)
The title says it all, and I can’t express it in any more uncertain terms: Jack Layton’s push to implement random breathalyzer tests on our roads is an unnecessary infringement of Section 8 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms (the right to be free from unreasonable search and seizure).

And nonsense like this.

In this morning’s Moncton Times & Transcript the sanctimonious leader of Canada’s fourth most important national party, the mighty NDP, says he would support efforts to craft a new law to curb impaired driving by giving police the power to conduct random breathalyzer tests.

When the NDP is targeted for criticism over actions by the Conservatives it demonstrates liberal priorities are seriously misplaced. Even worse though, is when this misplaced criticism amounts to an own goal.

There appears to be all-party encouragement for moving on the file later this fall. The Liberals and New Democrat leader Jack Layton have pledged their support for any move by government to give police random testing powers on the grounds it appears to have saved lives in other countries.

The obsession liberals have for attacking the NDP has gone on for nearly four years now and it’s done more damage to the Liberals than it has to the New Democrats. Until liberals recognize that and do something about it they better get used to seeing their party sitting on the opposition side of the House of Commons because they’re going to be there a long time.

Hot on the heels of news that Harper is set to call four by-elections to fill vacant seats in the House of Commons is silly commentary by silly pundits for silly people.

There are no easy wins for the Tories among the seats up for grabs. Conventional political wisdom is that by-elections tend to be hard for governing parties to win because they often turn into protest votes.

The riding of Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley in Nova Scotia has sent a Conservative to Parliament on all but one occasion–in `93 a Liberal managed to win when the Reform Party and PC Party split the vote–since the dawn of time. Bill Casey, running as an independent, won the riding with a staggering 69% of the vote in 2008. In 2006 he won it with a measly 52% of the vote running as a Conservative. To say that there are no easy wins for the Tories simply takes rationality out behind the woodshed and puts a bullet between its eyes.

Here’s another silly bit of commentary by silly pundits for silly people.

But for Michael Ignatieff, they’re the next true tests of his leadership. Because these by-elections are the first chance he’s had at running a campaign since he became Liberal leader…
And in order for him to pass these tests, he’s got to win one.

I’ve already pointed out that the riding in Nova Scotia is a lock for the Conservatives but what about the others. There are two up for grabs in Quebec and one in British Columbia.

Montmagny-L’Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup: This riding, created in 2003, was won by the Bloc in 2008 with 46% of the vote. The Liberals came in third with 15%.

Hochelaga-Maisonneuve: This riding, created in 2003, was won by the Bloc in 2008 with 50% of the vote compared to 20% for the second place Liberals.

New Westminster-Coquitlam: This riding was won by the NDP in 2008 with 42% of the vote. The Liberals finished third with 11%.

The only test Ignatieff and the rest of us face is the test of our patience as silly pundits make silly comments about these by-elections.

From Nanos.

Nearly three Canadians in four, 72.6 percent, do not want a fall election, while only 22.6 percent would prefer to have one. 4.8 percent are unsure.

Click on image to enlarge.

Why then, do Liberals continue to insist they know better than most Canadians.

Angus Reid has the details.

The national result:
Conservatives - 37%
Liberals - 29%
New Democrats - 16%
Bloc Quebecois - 9%
Greens - 8%

So how will the Liberal Party react to the verdict of Canadian voters on their latest strategy. They’re doubling down in the face of disaster. Good luck with that, eh.

Federal government lawyers have successfully argued that the Conservative’s fixed election date law was nothing more than a gimmick.

The latest numbers from Ipsos.
CP: 39%
LP: 30%
NDP: 12%
BQ: 9%
GP: 8%

Congratulations, liberals. You’ve managed to successfully trash talk the NDP into the dumpster without picking up any advantage yourselves and have put Harper within spitting distance of a majority.

The Liberals have released another one of their English ads. Clearly the Liberals want to distinguish themselves from the Conservatives by showing voters the difference between the personalities of the two party leaders. That’s understandable since they can’t do it by showing voters the difference between the policies of the two parties.

Apparently Ignatieff would be crazy to force a non-confidence motion now that the Harper Conservatives are outpolling his Liberals. Good point. Who in their right mind would ever do something like that.

SES Poll: November 16, 2005
Liberals: 34%
Conservatives: 28%

Non confidence motion introduced by a crazy man on November 24, 2005.

Opposition parties have formally unveiled a no-confidence motion to topple the Liberal government, making a mid-winter federal election seem inevitable…
It’s to be tabled Thursday by Conservative Leader Stephen Harper…
That would mean Prime Minister Paul Martin’s minority Liberal government would fall, triggering an election call on Nov. 29 and a campaign during the holiday season.

I retroactively feel bad for Harper. The crazy fool was undoubtedly pwned by Paul Martin’s Liberals who were leading in the polls. By the way, I can’t recall how history transpired after that point. Does anyone even know what became of that silly fool Stephen Harper? No doubt he’s gone on to other pursuits after getting soundly thrashed in that election just as the pre-writ polls predicted he would.

The impending election is being labeled a “Seinfeld election” by the punderatti because there are supposedly no issues upon which it can be fought. I beg to differ. There are plenty of issues for an election but there is one in particular that demands an election.

Harper’s utter contempt for our democracy.

Nine months ago Stephen Harper shut down our democracy–like a third world dictator–in order to save his job. That alone should be grounds for an election but that alone is not the full scope of Harper’s contempt for our democracy.

From his attempts to destroy the ability of opposition parties to function to his dismissal of the majority in Parliament to his subversion of the very democratic process itself, Harper has demonstrated that democracy is nothing more than an obstacle that must be overcome. Even now he considers our House of Commons to be nothing more than a “backroom”.

To say that there are no issues for an election is simply absurd. How can the protection of our democracy not be an issue of the utmost importance.

This is going to take some explaining but it looks like the Conservatives are making another sinister attempt to bankrupt the opposition parties.

Some time last year the Conservative Party discovered an error in the way Elections Canada reimbursed the party that has led, according to them, to an overpayment of nearly $600,000 for the 2004 and 2006 elections. The error stems from the way Non Profit Organizations are reimbursed for the amounts they pay in GST/HST and Quebec Sales Tax (QST) combined with the 50% reimbursement they receive in ridings where they attain at least 10% of the vote.

Essentially when the Conservative Party filed their election expenses in order to receive the riding reimbursement it included the amount they’d paid in GST/HST and QST. Therefore they’re claiming that they were improperly reimbursed an amount equal to 50% of the tax money they were already reimbursed.

For example, here is how the system currently works.
A riding spends $100 including the GST.
The party is reimbursed $5 for the GST.
The party is then reimbursed $50 (based on campaign expenditures of $100) because they garnered 10% of the vote.
Total reimbursement: $55

This is how the Conservatives are–perhaps quite legitimately–claiming it should work.
A riding spends $100 including the GST.
The party is reimbursed $5 for the GST.
The party is then reimbursed $47.50 (based on campaign expenditures of $100 minus the GST reimbursement) because they garnered 10% of the vote.
Total reimbursement: $52.50

Are you with me so far? Here’s where it gets interesting. When the Conservatives brought this to the attention of Elections Canada and attempted to refund the money they were apparently told that they couldn’t because it would be unfair to the other parties. So now the Conservative Party has filed a lawsuit against Elections Canada in order to force them to take the money.

So what’s the problem. Well this. The Conservative Party of Canada has only been in existence for 3 elections so if they’re successful in their lawsuit they’d only have to repay the amount they were overpaid in 3 elections. The other parties have been in existence for considerably longer and would therefore have to repay the amount they were overpaid in every election extending all the way back to the introduction of the GST and QST in 1991.

This could easily amount to millions of dollars for the Liberal Party and in excess of a million dollars for both the Bloc and NDP(see update II). While the cash flush Conservatives can easily afford to repay this money, an unexpected financial burden of millions of dollars would considerably cripple the ability of the opposition parties to finance an election campaign until they were able to recoup the losses.

Update: A writer for Candadian Press has come to the same conclusion I did.

Of course, if successful, the cash-flush Conservatives would also ensure that their poorer Liberal opponents have to refund similar - if not larger - sums.

Update II: A lengthier version of the CP story notes that this would not apply to the NDP.

A spokesman for the New Democrats said the party has never applied for the GST rebate.

“(The Conservatives) obviously made a decision to apply for it and now they don’t want it,” said NDP spokesman Brad Lavigne.

Popular support in the 2000 federal election:
Liberals: 40.85%
New Democrats: 8.51%
The grit/dipper spread: 32.34%

Popular support in the 2008 federal election:
Liberals: 26.26% (a decline of 14.59%)
New Democrats: 18.18% (an increase of 9.67%)
The grit/dipper spread: 8.08% (a decline of 24.26%)

Congratulations to Nova Scotia’s new Premier Darrell Dexter. As of 7pm edt, the results are:
NDP: 31
LP: 11
PC: 10

I’m sorry, Mr. Lam, but this type of appalling behaviour renders you unfit to serve in the BC Legislature.

Stagger this way to the Premier’s office, Mr. Campbell.

Oh noez!

CP: 36%
LP: 33%
NDP: 13% < --we're doomed!
BQ: 10%
GP: 8%

Oops, silly me, that’s the wrong poll. That one is from August 14th, 2007. Here’s the latest earth shattering–at least for the NDP or so I’ve heard–polling numbers.

Paul Wells has alerted us to a Crop poll being published in tomorrow’s La Presse that is allegedly going to astonish us. Some people are speculating that the astonishing news is that the poll will put the Liberals neck and neck or even ahead of the Bloc. The problem with that is an earlier Nanos poll already put the Liberals ahead of the Bloc by ten points (39-29). So that news wouldn’t be very astonishing.

Since I’m in the mood to make a wild prediction, I’m saying the astonishing news will be that the NDP has vaulted ahead of the Conservatives and Liberals in Quebec and are now breathing down the Bloc’s neck.

Now my prediction, while wild, isn’t based on nothing. For the past couple of weeks Ignatieff has been signaling that he could very well support Harper’s budget instead of voting it down and going for a coalition. The problem this creates for Ignatieff is that Quebeckers–according to another Nanos poll–have been very supportive of a coalition taking power by a wide margin of 62-30%. Since Quebeckers–unlike most parts of Canada–have demonstrated that they understand there are more choices than just the Liberals and Conservatives we could very well see the federalist vote undergo a massive shift toward the NDP who have unquestionably been 100% behind the coalition from day one.

While I could very well be wrong on this, you have to admit that the NDP taking over 2nd place in Quebec would actually fit the advanced billing of astonishing us.

Update: This is why I don’t make wild predictions.

The CROP poll for La Presse has the federal Liberal Party at 31 percent in Quebec, still shy of the 34 percent for the separatist Bloc Quebecois but well above the 16 percent for the Conservatives and 15 percent for the leftist New Democrats.

In my defense, I think CROP read my post last night and have released a bogus set of poll numbers just to make me look bad.

One of the key gripes conservatives have been making is that nobody voted for a coalition government and because of this we should have another election if the opposition topples the Harper government.

Maybe they’re right. Maybe the Canadian electorate should be given the opportunity to vote for a coalition government. Perhaps another election should be held that only had two choices on the ballot: Conservative or Coalition.

A Coalition ticket would be comprised of incumbent opposition MPs running unapposed by any of the other opposition parties with the remaining candidates being divided according to the party’s popular vote; ie. the NDP would run 18% of the remaining candidates, the Green Party would run 7%, etc.

Considering 63% of the voters in the last election chose one of the parties that would make up the Coalition ticket, I think the odds of such a ticket being given a sweeping majority that reduces the Conservatives to nothing more than the Alberta Party are pretty good. It would be fitting if conservatives got exactly what they’re asking for.

Conservatives need to stop parroting the line that nobody voted for a Liberal, NDP, Bloc coalition government during our last election. That is not true. On October 14th, 2008, I voted for a Liberal, NDP, Bloc coalition government if the Conservatives were held to another minority.

Kiss Quebec goodbye, Steve.

Parti Québécois Leader Pauline Marois, putting her spin on the chaos in the capital, said the crisis in Ottawa demonstrated the need for a sovereigntist majority because only the PQ would stand up to a federal government that doesn’t respect Quebec values.

She also attacked the Prime Minister for scheduling the confidence vote on the same day Quebeckers go to the polls.

“It’s completely disrespectful of Prime Minister Stephen Harper,” Ms. Marois said.

And the next swipe at the Stephen Harper pinata goes to the Premier of…stay tuned.